General Assembly forecasters agree with administration on revenue estimate

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Doug Finke State Capitol Bureau @DougFinkeSJR

Wednesday

Mar 4, 2020 at 7:57 PM Mar 4, 2020 at 7:57 PM

The General Assembly’s financial forecasters said Wednesday that there is a negligible difference in their estimates for tax collections next year and those of Gov. JB Pritzker’s administration.

In its annual forecast to lawmakers, the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability said it is predicting the state will collect about $40.645 billion in its general funds next year.

COGFA analysts said that Pritzker’s budget plan delivered last month assumed collections of $40.696 billion, a $51-million difference.

“Taken in the context of overall revenues of between $40 billion and $42 billion, the resulting revenue forecasts are viewed as very similar,” said COGFA Revenue Manager Jim Muschinske.

Those numbers do not include any money the state would take in if voters approve the graduated income tax amendment in November. If approved, the graduated tax would go into effect Jan. 1, halfway through the state’s fiscal year. The Pritzker administration has said it would allow for an additional $1.4 billion in spending in next year’s budget. COGFA agrees with that estimate.

Since the estimates from the administration and COGFA are similar, lawmakers will have a common base on which to build as spending plan for next year. Republicans are taking the stance that revenue growth from economic expansion will provide the state with enough money to cover next year’s expenses without any tax increases. They are uniformly opposed to the graduated income tax.

COGFA believes the state will continue to show growth in income and sales taxes, the two biggest revenue generators in the state. Muschinske said forecasters predict Illinois’ economy will continue to grow at a “moderate pace,” but will also under-perform compared to many other Midwestern states.

Moody’s Analytics prepared a report on Illinois’ economy and said the state is in “decent shape for a state facing a slowdown in manufacturing, poor agricultural conditions and numerous demographic and fiscal problems.”

Moody’s said the state has the resources to remain a top business center, but also warned that population losses and troubled state finances hurt its long-term potential.

Contact Doug Finke: doug.finke@sj-r.com, 788-1527, twitter.com/dougfinkesjr.

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Region: Springfield,Feeds,State,Politics,Central,City: Springfield,Region: Central

via State Government News – The State Journal-Register https://ift.tt/2rmLmH6

March 4, 2020 at 08:14PM

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