The survey included 400 likely midterm voters and was conducted Oct. 2–22. ActiVote reported an average expected error of 4.9 percentage points.

The poll uses self-selected app users, with responses weighted to reflect the electorate. It is one snapshot of the race, rather than a prediction of the final result.

A Different Campaign For Bailey

Bailey has sought to improve his standing in Chicago after repeatedly calling the city a "hellhole" during his 2022 campaign. In an April campaign video, he expressed regret over those comments.

His campaign has also unfolded amid personal loss. Bailey’s son, daughter-in-law, and two grandchildren died in an October 2025 helicopter crash in Montana. He paused campaigning before deciding to remain in the race.

Near the anniversary, Bailey thanked supporters and discussed his family’s grief in a video released on social media.