“Conventional wisdom,” Merriam Webster says, is “the generally accepted belief, opinion, judgment, or prediction about a particular matter.”

Conventional wisdom can be the mother of politics and campaigns. However, what is “generally accepted” can also be perilously wrong. 

As the fall political campaigns heat up, here’s a dose of how our politics is defying conventional wisdom.

Take the notion that, particularly in these times when super political action committees and special interests reign, money is king. The candidate who brings in the big bucks, so it goes, has the early and huge advantage. Elections are being bought and sold by the monied classes, “they” say.   

Alexi Giannoulias has beaucoup bucks. Last week, the Illinois secretary of state rolled out a flashy announcement that he is running for mayor of Chicago in 2027. 

That’s no surprise, since Giannoulias has been fiendishly raising campaign cash and is sitting on a $22 million campaign fund. He is a shoo-in for reelection to his current job in November, so he can preserve his stockpile for a mayoral bid. 

That makes him an instant front-runner for the fifth floor of City Hall, the pundits say. 

Really? Let’s look at another high-profile, big-bucks campaign in Illinois, the 2026 U.S. Senate primary race for the Democratic nomination. The contest between the leading candidates, U.S. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and U.S. Rep. Robin Kelly, was intensively competitive.

Money was supposed to not only talk, but shout, for Krishnamoorthi. When he launched his first TV ads last summer, conventional-wisdomers were already opining that he was the far-ahead front-runner. He spent lavishly, throwing millions of dollars into TV ads, just to remind voters to “call me Raja.” 

They said it was his race to lose. On March 17, Krishnamoorthi lost to Stratton by nearly 8 points. 

Krishnamoorthi spent nearly $24 million and received about 392,000 votes, at a cost of about $60 per ballot, according to a data analysis by CBS News, which did not include PAC money or outside spending.

Stratton deployed about $2.8 million for her win of about 473,000 votes, less than $6 per vote.  

Just last week in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, a progressive political newcomer, Abdul El-Sayed, beat U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, despite her campaign’s 9-to-1 spending advantage.

So much money, yet not enough. 

Speaking of the moolah, people are talking about Mayor Brandon Johnson’s lackluster fundraising. If he does decide to run for reelection, the pundits argue, it could be a major hurdle. That, along with the claim that voters are weary of the missteps and political infighting that have characterized much of Johnson’s first term. 

His main opponents, who lean center to right, are calling for less ideology and more “competence.” 

Yet, Johnson’s ideology may save his day. He is the only true, prominent progressive in the race, and progressives are surging. He was an early adopter of left-leaning policies and was elected on those promises. He can remind voters why they supported him in the first place. 

Like, for example, Johnson drove the effort to eliminate the subminimum wage for tipped workers and a 10-day paid leave policy. 

“He reopened several city-run mental health clinics and increased funding for youth summer jobs,” according to an analysis by The American Prospect last year. “The city council approved his $1.25 billion housing and economic development bond and recently passed a plan to build ‘green social housing’ through public-private partnerships.”

And violent crime is significantly down in Chicago. 

Voters who are cheering on this progressive moment and supported Johnson four years ago will think twice before abandoning an incumbent who has delivered.   

The left will be with him. Their agenda and their movement are at stake.  

All politics is local, goes another conventional nugget. Yet local politicians are sparking national headlines by calling out the president of the United States, who hasn’t stepped foot in Chicago in years. 

The closest Donald Trump will get to our great city are flyovers to red states and MAGA towns. (He’s too chicken.)

Taking on Trump is wildly popular in this true-blue state, and Johnson is getting national kudos for his persistent attacks on the president. Gov. JB Pritzker has cultivated the image as one of the nation’s most vocal Trump critics, putting him on the radar of every political reporter in Washington.

They are blasting all things Trump and his MAGA movement. 

Targeting the big bad bully in D.C. might not seem to jibe with local, on-the-ground, bread-and-butter issues such as high taxes, potholes, garbage pickup and school funding. However, Johnson and Pritzker would be wise to tie those concerns to Trump’s revenge tour, one that has stolen funding and resources from Chicago and other big democratic cities. 

That’s as local as you can get. 

Laura Washington is a political commentator and longtime Chicago journalist. Her columns appear in the Tribune every other Wednesday. Write to her at LauraLauraWashington@gmail.com.

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