The biggest political question around town at present is whether Chicago’s Mayor Brandon Johnson is planning to run for reelection.

A campaign for a second term has been the long-standing assumption among Johnson watchers. But several plugged-in folks who we’ve asked recently for an opinion on the matter have told us they are starting to wonder if the mayor might just declare victory and move on.

Certainly, the moment does not suggest an easy path to a second term. A recent University of Chicago poll put Johnson’s approval rating at 23%, with 54% disapproving overall of his work in office. But the more striking figure in that poll was the percentage of Chicagoans who want Johnson to run again: just 13.6%. Among Black Chicagoans, the poll reported that just 12.9% wanted Johnson to run.

Why the disparity between the approval rating and the desire to see the mayor wage another campaign? One obvious interpretation is that even those voters who approve of Johnson think there will be better choices come the municipal elections. Another possibility is that they fear his candidacy might split the vote in a way they don’t like. A third is that at least some of his supporters told pollsters they did not wish Johnson to run because they feared his defeat, perhaps even out of worry for the man himself. Or his broader cause.

Our view is that if Johnson feels inclined to run again and believes he can win, he should do so and not be concerned about polls. Our mayor is an ideologue, and while our critiques of both his policies and his competence have been frequent and varied, we never have found him capricious or inclined to pander to public opinion. That’s a specialty in New York, but not here. Johnson has clearly articulated principles and he fights for them in ways obvious to anyone even remotely paying attention.

That said, time is running out for him to make a decision, with Labor Day approaching fast as an obvious deadline. He is going to have to let his city know soon for the good of the democratic process.

This week, Johnson watchers have been treated to the theatrics of ballot questions for both the November and (especially) the February citywide election. The dirty not-so-secret here is that while these questions might look like matters upon which politicians really want voters’ opinions, the truth is that they are also tools to impact voter turnout. So while Johnson surely wanted the so-called millionaire tax on the ballot for the reasons he has consistently articulated, he also would benefit politically from its presence because he could have used it to juice progressive voter turnout, especially among the younger sector of the so-called Lakeview liberals struggling with affordability.

Instead, the City Council approved a slate that included a question asking whether the council should get its own lawyer, as distinct from relying on a law department controlled by the mayor, a question that might become moot for most council members if Johnson is no longer mayor.

Another question headed to the citywide ballot is whether or not the city should build a monument dedicated to Chicago’s music and arts. Sure, we’re the GOAT in those spheres, in our own minds at least, but that wording is so vague as to be absurd and is this not something the council could have figured out on its own?

The third question (and three is the max) is whether Chicago should make city employees in so-called sister agencies like the Chicago Transit Authority and Chicago Public Schools pay up on any debt they owe to the very city from which they are drawing a salary. Of course they should (state employees already have to do this). Our bet is that affirmative votes will come from almost everyone who does not work for said agencies. That sure won’t drive Johnson’s base to the polls.

Thus Johnson’s wishes, and Johnson’s electoral prospects, have been effectively usurped by his aldermanic foes on the council. Which brings us back to the question with which we started.

The mayor should answer it sooner rather than later.

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