* Council on Criminal Justice…

On Thursday (July 24), the Council on Criminal Justice will release its Mid-Year 2025 Crime Trends report, examining changes in 13 offenses across a sample of 42 American cities, including Chicago. The analysis shows that:

• Homicide and other violent crimes continue to drop below pre-2020 levels, before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and nationwide social justice protests.
• Reported levels of 12 of the 13 offenses were lower in the first half of 2025 than in the first half of 2024, with domestic violence the lone exception. Motor vehicle theft is the only offense that remains higher than mid-year 2019 levels.
• In Chicago: Homicide decreased 33% from mid-year 2024 to mid-year 2025 and is down 25% from mid-year 2019. Motor vehicle theft decreased 29% from mid-year 2024 to mid-year 2025, but remained 80% higher than mid-year 2019.

In the cities studied, homicides were down 17 percent from July of last year through the end of June this year. Homicides decreased nationally by 14 percent from July of 2019 through June of 2025. So, Chicago is about double the decreases in the other states.

* Percent change in homicide in 29 cities, January to June, 2019-25…

Homicides in Chicago are also down 13 percent from July of last year through the end of June this year. New York City homicides increased by 17 percent during the same time period.

Chicago homicides increased every July-June 12-month period starting in July of 2020 through June of last year: 30 percent 20-21; 39 percent 21-22; 27 percent 22-23; 4 percent 23-24.

* Background…

This report updates CCJ’s previous studies of crime changes in larger American cities. The series began during the early months of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, and this report extends the analyses with data through June 2025. The 42 cities included in this study were selected based on the availability of data at the time of data collection in early July 2025 (see the Appendix for the full list). They range from Cary, NC, the smallest, with about 182,000 residents, to New York, the largest, with around 8.3 million residents. The mean population of the cities for which crime data were available is approximately 822,000, while the median population is roughly 510,000.

Lots more at the link.

* And more from the NY Times…

The Real-Time Crime Index, published by Jeff Asher, a New Orleans-based crime analyst, tracks a much larger number of cities than the council does. That index, which follows more than 400 police agencies, shows that murders are down 20 percent through May, compared with the same period in 2024. […]

In addition, the Major Cities Chiefs Association, an organization of police executives from 69 of the largest cities in the U.S., reported double-digit declines in four violent crime categories in most of the cities they represent in the first three months of this year as compared with last year. Homicides and robbery were each down 20 percent, while rape fell 14 percent and aggravated assault was down 11 percent. […]

That the trends have been national in scope has challenged assumptions that local factors, like policy decisions or funding for safety programs, are the most important. “It feels like what’s happened over the last five years has upended some long-held beliefs about crime,” [Adam Gelb, the president and chief executive officer of the Council on Criminal Justice] said. “In particular, that levels of crimes and patterns are very locally driven and determined.” […]

“The theories and credit-taking claims are abundant,” Mr. Gelb said. “And a lot of the arguments have familiar contours. The right says it’s tougher enforcement and penalties. The left says it’s better programs and community investment. The bottom line is it’s likely a blend of both.”

Except penalties have not increased in Illinois since 2019. Some might say the same about enforcement.