The funding crunch for mass transit in Philadelphia is the canary in the train tunnel, and what is happening right now is a sign of what could happen in across the Chicago region, including Evanston.

Last Thursday, the board of the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority approved a budget which starts chopping commuter rail, bus, subway and trolley service effective Aug. 24, with elimination of 32 bus routes and reduction of rail trips.

More draconian changes come soon after that, with an average 21.5% fare hike on Sept. 1, and elimination of more bus lines and five regional rail routes on Jan. 1.

SEPTA is the Pennsylvania equivalent of the RTA in Chicago, a multi-jurisdictional mass transit agency.

And, just as the RTA faces a fiscal cliff with the end of federal COVID relief dollars (leading to fare hikes and service cuts), it’s the same story in Philly.

The RTA cliff is bigger, $771 million vs. $213 million, but that’s only because Chicago has a larger transit system (#2 in the country) compared to Philadelphia (#6).

Just as in Illinois, the situation in Pennsylvania is playing out like an old-fashioned melodrama … except instead of a damsel in distress being tied to the railroad tracks, it’s the riders who are being roped down, with the Fiscal Cliff Express bearing down at full speed.

And as in Illinois as well, the question becomes will the legislature ride to the rescue and untie the damsel (or the riders) with a healthy infusion of cash?

Illinois lawmakers were unable to reach a funding/restructuring solution by the time their session ended on May 31. They may have a special session this summer, or tackle the transit question again during the fall veto session. Major cuts will start in January without a resolution.

In Pennsylvania, the Fiscal Cliff Express is moving faster.

SEPTA already passed its FY’26 budget, with cuts beginning in August … unless the legislature acts.

Unlike Illinois, where Democrats control both houses of the legislature, in Pennsylvania, the Democrats have the House, and the Republicans run the Senate.

The House there has already passed a funding package, proposed by Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat. Democrats tend to represent urban areas where mass transit is the lifeblood of the economy.

But rural Republicans don’t want their constituents’ money going to big, bad Philly, at least not without something in return.

The Illinois legislature, on the other hand, has “D’s” in charge of both houses, along with the governor’s mansion.

But there is still a rural/urban split, not to mention differences between the City of Chicago and its suburbs on how any transit restructuring will be hammered out. In other words, it’s a power struggle, even in areas which are more or less the same political party.

In Philadelphia, assuming reductions are not averted there, we will start seeing a preview in less than two months there, of what could happen here.

And it’s not pretty.

The SEPTA budget which just passed, said the agency’s general manager, “will effectively dismantle” mass transit in Philadelphia.