Calling the situation “unprecedented,” the Regional Transportation Authority has told its three sub-agencies, Metra, the CTA, and PACE suburban buses, to come up with two separate budgets over the next few months.

One budget assumes the worst. The other assumes that the worst will not happen.

With federal COVID relief dollars running out, Chicagoland mass transit agencies face a combined $771 “fiscal cliff” next year, which would mean significant cuts. The Illinois legislature failed to come up with a funding solution before its session ended on May 31.

The RTA board voted on Thursday to have Metra, CTA, and PACE prepare revenue and spending plans for two separate scenarios.

Scenario #1, according to an RTA document, assumes “no new funding is identified, requiring fare increases, operating efficiencies, and potential service reductions.”

Scenario #1 would also include specific service cuts. The RTA has previously stated that up to 40% of existing rail, L, and bus service could be eliminated under the “fiscal cliff” reality.

Under Scenario #2,”Temporary or stopgap funding is approved before … [Metra, CTA, and PACE] adoption of the 2026 Operating Budget,” which would head off the draconian reductions, while allowing the legislature more time to come up with a longer-term solution.

Under both budget scenarios, the RTA is also telling Metra, CTA, and PACE to “include a general fare increase that generates at least $50 million in new regional annual revenue….”

State legislators have said there is still time to come up with a funding solution, either through a special meeting this summer, or in the fall veto session.

However, in its document, the RTA states that the difference “between the legislative calendar and RTA’s statutory budgetary deadlines creates a high-risk environment for planning and service continuity.”

Each of the three transit operators has to present an approved budget to the RTA by Nov. 15, but public hearings are required before that.

RTA is also setting up a Task Force (which includes Metra, CTA, and PACE) to, among other things, see if any expense reductions in 2025 could help out for 2026.