SPRINGFIELD — President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will meet Thursday evening in Atlanta for the earliest presidential debate in American history, offering each a high-profile opportunity to directly reach millions of voters and reframe a race that most polling indicates is tied.

It will take place nearly three months earlier than any previous presidential debate. And unlike past years, there will be no audience and microphones will be muted when it is not the candidate’s turn to speak. 

Longtime Illinois political observers who spoke with Lee Enterprises said the early timing and unique circumstances — it is the first presidential rematch in more than 60 years — could make this first debate more consequential than usual.

"I think debates matter particularly in a race which could literally turn on thousands of votes in a handful of states," said John Shaw, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University. "So, any major factor like a face-to-face, one-on-one encounter is likely to have some impact on at least thousands of voters, if not millions of voters."

Both candidates are deeply unpopular and have vulnerabilities not necessarily associated with their policy positions. Among them, voters have expressed concerns about whether Biden, 81, is still up to the job at his age.

Trump, 78, has faced similar questions to a lesser extent but is more bogged down by his status as the country’s first former president to be convicted of a felony.

A Manhattan jury found Trump guilty last month on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to cover up a sex scandal in the run-up to the 2016 election. He faces dozens more state and federal charges in three additional cases relating to his alleged mishandling of classified documents and attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. 

"I think that the country not sort of loving this choice is very evident," said Tom Bowen, a Chicago-based Democratic political strategist. "And how are you going to put forward a plausible argument to (voters) to be given control the next four years? I mean, the simple answer is ‘my opponent is the worst choice.’ And that’s what both of them have signaled they’re doing in the campaign."

Despite deep political polarization, the debate could help the campaigns move the needle with thousands of voters in key swing states. It doesn’t take much to turn an election, with Biden’s 2020 victory over Trump sealed by narrow wins in swings states like Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 

Experts agreed more than any policy discussion, the candidates’ delivery and presentation will matter, with Biden needing to reassure skeptical Democratic and independent voters that he remains physically and mentally up for the job, while Trump will need to show some restraint and avoid the personal behavior that repulsed a small-but-not-insignificant number of Republican-leaning voters in 2020 and in the primaries earlier this year. 

"I think, frankly, it’s going to hinge on whether Biden can present himself as both presidential and energetic and fully in command of his powers," Shaw said. "It will be interesting to see if Trump tries to project himself in a more presidential way than he did during his four years as president and during his time on the campaign trail. There’s no doubt his advisers are going to try to get him to act more presidential."

Rodney Davis, a Republican who represented Central Illinois in Congress from 2013 to 2023, was more blunt in his assessment of Biden’s mission, saying the octogenarian incumbent "can’t have the senior moment on the debate stage."  

"Joe Biden has to put to bed the perception that he’s lost a step," Davis said. "He did that when Republicans set pretty low expectations for the State of the Union and he came out and exceeded those expectations. Republicans are falling into that same trap right now. They’re setting expectations very, very low. And he has to come out and not only meet those expectations, but he has to exceed those expectations."

Davis said Trump, on the other hand, would help himself by reminding voters about his legislative record prior to the COVID-19 pandemic while checking his controversial behavior. 

"President Trump has to come out and be less aggressive; he has to show the American people that he’s capable of being the president and leading them without just going on the attack 100% of the time," Davis said. 

But Bowen said reminders of Trump’s time in office might not serve the former president, noting most elections are about the future.

"In order to have a change, you need something new," Bowen said. "This campaign for him is basically ‘change things back to the way they were.’ And that’s a tough argument. Voters are usually pretty forward-looking and not too fixated on the past."

As for debate theatrics, Bowen said "don’t sleep on" the fact that Trump’s mic can be cut off, a wild card that could work either in his favor or against him.

"That could play one of two ways," Bowen said. "One, Trump could just be so bad at it and just look kind of fumbling and weak and silly because the moderators keep cutting him off. Or it may constrain some of his weirdest, dumbest rants because they decide he’s not answering the question."

Davis said "time will tell" if cutting the mics will work.

"Remember, it’s a pretty quiet studio," Davis said. "If your mic gets cut off and somebody wants to yell loud enough, it’s probably gonna get picked up in the other person’s mic."

On the policy front, Davis said he expects Trump to hit Biden on his response to the migrant crisis at the U.S.-Mexican border as well as continued concerns over inflation and crime. As the incumbent, Biden will have to play defense on these topics.

But, Davis said Trump’s status as a former president will give Biden a chance to go on offense on certain topics, most notably abortion rights. 

"He has to talk about what three Supreme Court justice appointments that President Trump did to send the decision of Roe v. Wade back to the states," Davis said. 

Shaw added he "would be surprised if Biden does not utter the term ‘convicted felon’ multiple times in describing Trump."

The experts agreed Biden and Trump are better served by having a one-on-one debate versus involving third party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., saying it frames the race as a two-person contest. 

"New is good, new focuses the mind," Bowen said of the earlier date and new rules. "I do think it’ll force (voters) to contemplate, at least, this choice earlier than they usually do.

"It’s a unique debate with predictable old characters," Bowen said. "It’ll probably make for good TV."