SPRINGFIELD — It’s been 17 months since Rodney Davis and Cheri Bustos ended their decade-long tenures as members of Congress.

"I miss my friends. I miss being able to have a seat at the table on major policy decisions," Davis, a Republican from Taylorville, said. "But do I miss what’s going on in Washington right now? Hell no."

"Yeah, it got crazier after we left. Did you notice that?" Bustos, a Democrat who lives in Galena, then interjected. 

"I’m glad I’m not there anymore," Bustos said. "I loved 95% of my job when I was in Congress. But the 5% that I didn’t like as much were really, really, really tough."

The pair, who have both since taken jobs with Washington, D.C.-based lobbying firms, offered  “A View From The Beltway” to Illinois business leaders gathered in Springfield on Wednesday for the Illinois Manufacturers’ Association and Illinois Retail Merchants’ Association’s annual lobbying day.

In a panel discussion I had the pleasure of moderating on Wednesday, Bustos and Davis painted a picture of a hyper-partisan, closely divided Washington where big policy debates, such as immigration reform, would likely be put on the backburner as campaigning ramps up ahead of the November election. 

Davis, who lost a post-redistricting incumbent-versus-incumbent Republican primary to Rep. Mary Miller, R-Hindsboro, in 2022, told those gathered that some routine legislation, such as the reauthorizations of the Federal Aviation Administration and the defense budget, would likely pass with bipartisan majorities. And there may be a continuing resolution to keep government funded and open. But not much more.

A big reason? The super-slim Republican House majority. GOP leaders, first former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Ca., and now Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., have found it difficult to pass legislation that can attain approval from the Democrat-controlled Senate and White House while also appeasing a handful of far-right GOP members in the House Freedom Caucus. 

It takes just a few members of the Republican majority to tank legislation. As a result of this, House GOP leaders have had to rely on Democratic votes to pass legislation in certain instances, such as the Ukraine aid package last month.

But working with the other party can be politically perilous. McCarthy was ousted last year after a motion to vacate the chair was filed by Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., and supported by a handful of Republicans and all Democrats.

After the foreign aid vote last month, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., filed a motion to vacate against Johnson. She has two other Republican supporters, but Democrats have indicated they are not inclined to toss out Johnson like they were McCarthy.

"So Speaker Johnson is going to go through this motion to vacate," Davis said.

"And I think that’s going to make him realize, ‘you know what? Let’s just kind of stick together on some of these major issues’ — the three that I just mentioned — get them across the finish line, see what the election holds, see who’s going to be in the majority, and then move on to the next Congress."

"I think that’d be the best move for Speaker Johnson," he continued. "But it’s not going to be without difficulty. And as we get closer to the election, the chance of more bipartisan success is virtually zero."

Bustos and Davis both predicted that the Republicans will regain control of the Senate following the November elections given the number of Democratic-held seats that are in right-leaning states.

As for the House, the two characterized it as a tossup, though Bustos believes Democrats will take back control while Davis believes Republicans will retain it.

"If the Democrats win back the majority, or if the Republicans keep the majority in the House, it’s going to be a slim majority no matter what," Bustos said, with Davis agreeing. "It is just how our nation is operating now."

Bustos said she thinks President Joe Biden will win reelection. 

"I pray to God that my last prediction is the most accurate; I can live with the other two not being accurate," she said, warning of the consequences if Trump returns to power. 

Davis thinks Trump will win, citing the former president’s appeal to "a low-propensity voter" that only turns out when he is on the ballot. 

"Look, I don’t have any love lost for the guy," Davis said. "He endorsed against me, so I’m not here to be a shill. Frankly, I think it’s a disaster that these are the only two candidates that America gets to choose from."

Davis, said Trump’s various criminal cases have helped him politically as there is "nobody in this country that plays the victim … (better) than Donald Trump."

Bustos and Davis agreed that the ongoing crisis at the southern border is hurting Biden. Another issue at the forefront has been Israel’s war in Gaza, which has led to protests from pro-Palestinian students, who have occupied or encamped on university campuses across the country in recent weeks.

Davis said the scenes are reminiscent of the late 1960s and early 1970s, when protests resulted in a backlash that ushered in of a new era in conservative politics. 

"This is so reminiscent of what I learned about in my history books as to what helped Richard Nixon get reelected during a time when he really shouldn’t have with the Vietnam War going on, etc.," Davis said. "I think Trump’s going to take advantage of it."

Bustos agreed that potential unrest could play into Trump’s hands, saying "it worries me about Chicago and our convention that we’re going to have."

But she cautioned that many voters have yet to start paying attention to politics, predicting that once Election Day gets closer and people start listening to Trump’s statements more closely, they will be turned off by the former president as they have in the past. 

Bustos said that Biden needs to "get caught trying" to solve the issues that are dragging down his approval ratings in addition to promoting his robust record of legislative accomplishments, which include the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. 

"That was always our view in our congressional office," Bustos said. "Doesn’t mean we can fix everything, doesn’t mean that we can make everything better, but always get caught trying. So to this border thing, to the protests, you can’t just ignore that that’s happening."

But, getting anything through legislatively on these issues in a divided Capitol in an election year is not likely, both said.

On immigration reform, Bustos flatly said "we are not going to see that happen anytime soon," Davis agreed, calling it "the third rail of politics."

"This is the most volatile issue in Washington that will not be solved because of the polarization that exists in this country," Davis said. 

Bustos was more optimistic about opportunities for bipartisanship after the election, saying that "if we’re going to move any kind of major legislative legislation forward, it is going to have to take people in the middle who are willing to cross party lines."

Bustos is a partner at Mercury Public Affairs. Davis is a managing director at Cozen O’Connor Public Strategies.