It’s well known that Champaign-Urbana is an island of blue among a sea of red voters in central Illinois, but there are early signs of a more pronounced gap in 2024.

While Champaign, McLean and Peoria counties all supported Joe Biden for president in 2020 (he had 60 percent of the vote in Champaign County, 52 percent in Peoria and 50.5 percent in McLean), there’s a distinct lack of financial enthusiasm for Biden in those areas this year.

Biden has a fundraising advantage over Republican front-runner Donald Trump in Champaign, Urbana and Charleston, but he’s getting squashed in other central Illinois communities, particularly bigger-money cities such as Springfield, Peoria, Bloomington and Normal.

Getting flattened even worse in central Illinois is onetime Republican wunderkind Ron DeSantis. The Florida governor, at one time expected to challenge Trump for the GOP nomination, has been a nonfactor locally. His best fundraising haul, at least according to the latest records covering fundraising through Sept. 30, was in the Peoria area, which covers 16 ZIP codes. There, DeSantis raised nearly $3,000 — more than twice as much as former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, but about one-tenth of the $29,474 that Trump collected.

Statewide, because of Biden’s strength in the Chicago area, the president had raised $1.51 million to Trump’s $1.17 million. Haley had a narrow $551,199-to-$503,553 lead over DeSantis. All of those third-quarter figures will be updated in about a month.

Downstate, though, the Trump train is steamrolling opponents. He’s raised almost $40,000 in Springfield to $14,244 for Biden and $2,267 for DeSantis. In McLean County — where Biden won in 2020 — Trump has raised more than $25,000 in Bloomington-Normal to about $7,500 for Biden and $260.25 for DeSantis. In Decatur, Trump’s haul was more than $14,000 to $702 for DeSantis and $500 for Biden.

For the most part, central Illinois Trump supporters are not your old-style, wealthy business types. They’re retirees, small-business people or employees who make a series of $5, $10 or $12 contributions over months that add up to odd numbers like $315.96 or $1,649.86. In the Peoria area, for example, Trump received contributions from 29 individuals ranging from $204 to $2,250. Biden had donations from nine individuals there. In the Springfield area, it was 35-to-13 favoring Trump over Biden.

Closer to home, political contributions have been more meager. In Charleston and Mattoon, Biden has raised $6,173 (all in Charleston), Trump about $3,500, Haley about $570 and DeSantis, $260. In Danville, Trump has $5,533 to $1,000 for Biden, $305 for Haley and zero for DeSantis.

In Champaign-Urbana, Biden’s total is nearly $13,000 to almost $7,500 for Trump, $680 for Haley and a single $250 contribution for DeSantis.

Biden isn’t likely to lose to Trump — or any other Republican — in Illinois next year, but the weak early fundraising figures along with lukewarm polling won’t help down-ballot Democrats in close races. And the enthusiasm gap, in Illinois and elsewhere, will continue to give Democrats anxiety about the wisdom of sticking with Biden for a second run.

Census folly

A story in Thursday’s News-Gazette, carried by other media in the state, claimed that Illinois’ population has dropped by nearly 33,000 between July 2022 and July 2023. It said the state’s population is now about 12.54 million.

What the story failed to mention is that the data are based on estimates, and bad estimates at that.

The Census Bureau has been making these annual estimates for years, and it always attracts attention, particularly from the right-wing Illinois Policy Institute, which jumps on any narrative that portrays Illinois’ political leadership in a negative light. There’s plenty of material to be had, but not here.

The Census Bureau estimates have given Illinois 10 consecutive years of population losses. Somehow, however, the Census Bureau’s own revised 2020 count — not an estimate, but the one it spends so much money and personnel on to get correct — shows that Illinois’ population actually grew to more than 13 million people.

All of the various, wildly disparate numbers call into question how competent the Census Bureau is and why it even makes these annual estimates.

Changing climate

Global scientists have proclaimed 2023 the warmest year in recorded history. That won’t be the case in central Illinois, although it will be close.

Temperatures in Champaign-Urbana this year will end up around 3 degrees above normal, according to preliminary records from the Illinois State Water Survey. The mean temperature locally has been about 54.8 degrees, greater than the 1991-2020 annual average of 51.6 degrees.

The warmest year locally was 2012, with a mean temperature of 55.6 degrees. Last year’s average was 51.8 degrees. This year, we’ll end up in the top 10, especially with a late-December surge of comparative warmth.

Every month this year has had temperatures at or above normal, ranging from 9.2 degrees above normal in January (34 degrees) to a perfectly average 72.2 degrees in June.

Precipitation this year will end up between 8 and 9 inches below normal, or about 20 percent short of the 1991-2020 annual average of 41.4 inches of rain.

Snowfall again has been virtually nonexistent, with just 5 inches all year. That’s the second-lowest total since the start of local weather records in 1888. Only 2006 with 3.3 inches had less snow. The recent average annual snowfall is 23.2 inches.