In a presidential contest cycle, Senate races don’t get the same kind of attention when there’s still a year to go until Election Day. But the start of the second fundraising quarter earlier this month brought a host of new candidate names – some declared and some still biding their time – that will help shape the race for control of the chamber in 2024 and the ultimate power dynamics for whoever is president in 2025.

With more candidates launching their campaigns this month, the prospect of competitive primaries has become more real – especially on the Republican side. That’s especially true in the top three seats most likely to flip, which represent the GOP’s best chances to pick up the one or two seats they’d need to control the chamber, depending on who wins the presidency. (Rankings are based on CNN’s reporting, fundraising figures and historical data about how states and candidates have performed.)

West Virginia’s GOP primary – mainly between the governor and a congressman – was already brewing, but it’s looking even more contentious with outside groups like the Club for Growth’s political arm touting the millions they’re planning to spend. This race will be a marquee battle between the national GOP’s more establishment forces and the conservative outside group. And, as in other races like Montana and Nevada, this one will test the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s new strategy of picking sides in primaries.

It’s impossible to talk about Republican primaries without discussing former President Donald Trump. Ever since 2016, loyalty to him has been a key litmus test for the GOP – often much more than actual conservatism. But adherence to his election conspiracy theories has sometimes hurt Republicans in general elections, with the 2022 midterms being a prime example.

The chairman of the NRSC, Montana Sen. Steve Daines, has endorsed Trump. And for now, at least, the former president appears to be playing along. CNN reported that he’s informed two House Freedom Caucus members whom he’s previously backed – in West Virginia and Montana – that they won’t have his support for the Senate. (In Montana, Rep. Matt Rosendale hasn’t yet announced his campaign but is expected to challenge the NRSC’s preferred candidate.)

This month’s ranking isn’t all about primary drama, however. In Pennsylvania, Republicans breathed a major sigh of relief in May when election denier Doug Mastriano, fresh off his 15-point gubernatorial loss, decided not to run. The expectation that Dave McCormick will get into the race with a clearer lane – and the GOP’s lack of candidates right now in other states – bumps the Keystone State up one spot on this list as slightly more likely to flip.

Overall, the Senate map remains an offensive opportunity for Republicans. Democrats hold seven of the 10 seats most likely to flip next year, an independent holds one and Republicans hold two – a breakdown that’s unlikely to change much, although the order of the ranking will likely evolve in the months to come.