Top States with Counties Most Vulnerable to Housing Market Declines

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ATTOM’s newly released Q2 2022 Special Housing Risk Report shows that New Jersey, Illinois and inland California continued to have the highest concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the second quarter. According to the report, the biggest clusters were in the New York City and Chicago areas, while the Southern and midwestern states remained less exposed.

ATTOM’s housing risk report spotlights county-level housing markets around the U.S. that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, unemployment and other measures. The Q2 2022 report looked at counties that were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes, and local unemployment rates.

The conclusions notated in the report were drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability, equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM, while unemployment rates came from federal government data. Rankings were then based on a combination of those four categories in 575 counties around the U.S. with sufficient data in Q2 2022. Counties were then ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the four ranks.

According to the report, New Jersey, Illinois and California had 33 of the 50 counties most vulnerable to potential declines, with the 50 most at-risk including nine in and around New York City, six in the Chicago metro, and 13 spread through northern, central and southern California. The report stated the rest of the top 50 counties were scattered across the U.S., including three in the Philadelphia, PA, metro. Meanwhile, at the other end of the risk spectrum, the South and Midwest had the highest concentration of markets considered least vulnerable to falling housing markets.

In this post, we dig into the data behind the ATTOM Q2 2022 Special Housing Risk Report to reveal the other top states with the most counties vulnerable to housing market declines. Those states with the most at-risk counties among the top 50 most vulnerable include: California (13 counties); New Jersey (11 counties); Illinois (9 counties); New York (3 counties); and Colorado (3 counties).

Also, in this post, we dig into the data behind the ATTOM Q2 2022 Special Housing Risk Report to reveal the top states with the most counties least vulnerable to housing market declines. Those states with the most counties among the bottom 50 least at-risk include: Tennessee (6 counties); Wisconsin (5 counties); Arkansas (4 counties); Texas (3 counties); and Georgia (3 counties).

ATTOM’s latest report noted that major home ownership costs on median-priced single-family homes consumed more than one-third of average local wages in 35 of the 50 counties that were most vulnerable to market problems in Q2 2022. The report also noted that at least 7 percent of residential mortgages were underwater in Q2 2022 in 23 of the 50 most at-risk counties, while nationwide, 5.9 percent of mortgages fell into that category. Also, more than one in 1,000 residential properties faced a foreclosure action in Q2 2022 in 40 of the 50 most at-risk counties; while nationwide, one in 1,559 homes were in that position.

Want to learn more about housing risk in your market? Contact us to find out how!

About The Author

Christine Stricker

Christine Stricker is the senior marketing manager for ATTOM Data Solutions where she serves the primary media liaison for the premium property data provider. She is responsible for successfully driving ATTOM Data products, service and brand promise in the marketplace and instrumental in identifying opportunities and delivering effective strategies to generate results.

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September 17, 2022 at 10:29AM

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