Simon Poll: Pritzker leads by 22 points, Raoul up by 10, Dems more enthusiastic

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* Press release…

Democrat J. B. Pritzker holds a comfortable lead in the race for Governor of Illinois, with GOP incumbent Bruce Rauner and other candidates trailing. The number of undecided voters is relatively small with one month left to go in the campaign for governor. That is the major conclusion of a statewide poll of likely voters released today by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.

The poll was conducted September 24-29 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage point for the entire sample. The poll covered a sample of 1,001 registered voters. The election analysis presented here is based on 715 likely voters. The margin of error for likely voters is 3.7 percentage points.

When asked, “If the election were held today…who would you vote for?” Forty-nine percent chose Pritzker; 27 percent chose Rauner with 4 percent who selected the conservative Sam McCann and 4 percent who selected Libertarian Kash Jackson. The remaining 17 percent were undecided.

Pritzker led in Chicago by 65 percent to 22 percent and the five suburban Collar Counties by 53 percent to 23 percent. Pritzker and Rauner were essentially tied downstate with Pritzker at 35 percent and Rauner at 34 percent. Pritzker enjoyed an 81 percent to 6 percent lead among Democrats while Rauner took a 67 percent to 6 percent lead among Republican voters. McCann was taking 7 percent among Republican voters while Jackson garnered 6 percent among Republicans.

In the other high-profile statewide race for a constitutional office, Attorney General, State Senator Kwame Raoul held a 36 percent to 26 percent lead over Champaign attorney Erika Harold with 39 percent undecided. Raoul led in Chicago by 50 percent to 23 percent with 26 percent undecided. He also led in the Collar Counties by 41 percent to 25 percent with 34 percent undecided; Harold led downstate by 27 percent to 19 percent with 53 percent undecided.

“There is an unusually large percentage of undecided voters in this race perhaps reflecting the low level of attention it has received compared to the high-profile governor’s race”, said Institute Director John Shaw. “This indicates that this race is still very much dependent on the late deciders.”

The voters were also asked “Are you more enthusiastic than usual about voting, or less enthusiastic? The results showed that the Democrats are 19 percent more enthusiastic than the Republicans. Seventy percent of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic while 51 percent of Republicans said they are more enthusiastic about going to vote in the November elections. Independents trailed with 50 percent saying they were more enthusiastic and 26 percent saying they were less enthusiastic about voting this year.

Conservative voters chose more enthusiastic compared to less enthusiastic by 61 percent to 24 percent while liberal voters chose more enthusiastic by 73 percent to 14 percent.

“Illinois Democrats are displaying greater enthusiasm about this midterm election than are Republicans or Independents. The so-called “enthusiasm gap” is comparable to what we have been seeing across the country for some time” said Simon Institute Visiting Professor Charlie Leonard. “If it holds up and is reflected in comparable turnout numbers, it will be a major advantage for the Democrats.

Summarizing these results, John Jackson, one of the directors of the poll said, “While the Democrats clearly have an advantage in both of these high-profile races at this point, November 6th is still one month away. The campaigns and the candidates’ closing arguments and get out the vote efforts can still make a significant difference by then. [Emphasis added.]

A sitting governor polling at 27 percent in late September.

Twenty-seven. Unheard of.

More info is here.


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October 2, 2018 at 01:29PM

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