I’m not a political strategist, and I don’t play one on TV, but occasionally I wear that hat in the newspaper.
The topic is income tax reform, specifically a renewed push to enact an additional state levy on earnings greater than $1 million.
For deep context, visit tinyurl.com/ILEPItaxreport to read an April 1 report from the Illinois Economic Policy Institute and the Project for Middle Class Renewal at the University of Illinois titled “Adopting a Millionaires’ Tax in Illinois: Impacts on Property Taxes. Public Schools and the Economy.”
For solid analysis, consider Brenden Moore’s Capitol News Illinois Insider piece from Friday (tinyurl.com/InsiderApril3is).
Top-level considerations are the report’s finding that more than 99.95% of Illinoisans would be exempt, but those whose annual net incomes exceed $1 million are so wealthy that a 3% surtax could generate $3.8 billion in the first full year and $5.47 billion by 2035.
Accepting that math is real, there are some other key considerations: voters would have to approve the change on a statewide ballot, and that would only be an option if the General Assembly certifies the question by May 3. Like referendum passage, ballot placement requires a 60% supermajority vote in each chamber.
Democrats have enough seats to adopt the question without GOP support. In the Senate, there are 40 Democrats with 36 votes needed to clear 60%. In the House, there are 78 Democrats and a supermajority threshold of 71. Unlike legislation, final approval wouldn’t require the governor’s signature.
Here comes the strategy.
Moore wrote the plan “has a powerful backer in House Speaker Emanuel ‘Chris’ Welch, D-Hillside, who told CNI in February that he’s working to build support for the amendment.” Another loud booster is former Gov. Pat Quinn, a Chicago Democrat who frames the proposal as a way to give the state money that could either fully fund public education or generate substantial property tax rebates.
Those are good selling points, but as of yet, they carry a similar fatal flaw to the 2020 “fair tax” referendum: economic projections and policy proposals aren’t guarantees. If or when plain language appears on a ballot, opponents will be quick to argue against the wisdom of giving lawmakers a blank check.
Gov. JB Pritzker poured buckets of campaign cash into the 2020 referendum only to suffer his most significant political defeat. His signature isn’t required to get the question before voters, but his considerable wealth is the economic engine behind Democratic campaigns at home and nationwide. Even ignoring the potential for a presidential bid, does he want to revisit this gamble?
With more ironclad plans, Democrats might be able to convince enough voters. But can they spread a winning message on their own nickel?
• Scott T. Holland writes about state government issues for Shaw Local News Network. He can be reached at sholland@shawmedia.com.
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April 7, 2026 at 10:07AM
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