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MOORE’S SUMMARY: Illinois’ 2026 primary election season was dizzying. A once-in-a-generation open U.S. Senate seat and five open congressional seats, a GOP gubernatorial primary, an open Democratic race for comptroller. Not to mention the flood of dark money that poured into some of those contests. Even for seasoned political reporters, it was a lot to keep up with. Here are eight of my takeaways from Tuesday’s results:
1. PRITZKER WINS: If there was any doubt left about who’s boss in Illinois politics, it was put to rest Tuesday evening. Gov. JB Pritzker used his financial and political muscle to help make his lieutenant governor the likely successor to Sen. Dick Durbin. He also put his thumb on the scale for longtime ally Margaret Croke, who appears likely to win the Democratic primary for comptroller in a tight four-way contest.
While I think some national reporters and political pundits who’ve offered analysis are overstating the importance of the results in the context of Pritzker’s 2028 presidential prospects, his electoral wins are unquestionably a signal of the billionaire’s outsized influence on Land of Lincoln politics.
More succinctly: It was a good night for the governor. To give a flavor of the mood in Pritzker World, his top political advisor, Mike Ollen, wrote on social media “Let’s f—ing go” just after 9 p.m., when it was clear Stratton would likely emerge victorious.
2. STRATTMENTUM WAS REAL: With the aid of nearly $15 million in ad spending from the Pritzker-funded Illinois Future PAC, Stratton caught late momentum. But the extent of it — and whether it would be enough to catch longtime polling leader Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi — was in question.
But it turns out they may have undersold it. As of Wednesday afternoon, Stratton has 40% to Krishnamoorthi’s 33% and Rep. Robin Kelly’s 18%. The LG performed extremely well in Chicago and far better-than-expected downstate and in the suburban collar counties.
A few months ago, one political operative suggested to me that the race would close in a similar way to the 2024 Democratic primary for Senate in Maryland.
In that race, self-funding Rep. David Trone was the longtime frontrunner but ultimately lost to Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, one of two Black women now in the U.S. Senate. Basically, the idea was that as a baseline, the fundamentals favored Stratton and, if given the financial resources to communicate her message to voters, the contest would revert to that baseline. Given her strength in traditionally Democratic bastions in Cook County, it appears that happened.
3. STRATTON CONTINUES ILLINOIS TRADITION: If she wins in November, Stratton will continue a remarkable run of Illinois electing Black candidates to statewide office. She would be just the sixth Black woman elected to the Senate — the first being former Sen. Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois.
Then, of course, you have former Sen. Barack Obama, former Secretary of State Jesse White, Attorney General Kwame Raoul and Roland Burris, who was elected comptroller, attorney general and appointed to complete Obama’s Senate term.
4. RAJA LOSES: Krishnamoorthi spent years laying the groundwork for a Senate run, crisscrossing the state to various county party functions and raising gobs of money. And he spent most of the campaign as the polling frontrunner. For six months, he was on television uncontested and it felt like his nomination was inevitable.
But when all was said and done, Krishnamoorthi came in a distant second to Stratton and conceded the race relatively early. It’s a huge disappointment for someone who had his eyes on Durbin’s seat the second he was elected to Congress.
But it’s a reflection that money, while helpful, can’t buy you everything. His campaign spent more than $29 million on ads, but Krishnamoorthi’s numbers clearly hit a ceiling late last year that they could never break through.
As Stratton gained, the goal from outside groups tacitly backing Krishnamoorthi seemed to shift from boosting him to knocking Stratton and promoting Kelly, a move viewed as an effort to split the state’s Black voters.
He tried to run out the clock. But that’s always a precarious position to be in.
5. ILLINOIS GOP PROBLEM IN A MAP: Ted Dabrowski’s central argument in his campaign for governor was that he was the most conservative candidate who could also win the suburbs in a general election. Some of that appeal showed up in the primary Tuesday as Dabrowski won in Cook, Lake and DuPage Counties.
Unfortunately for Dabrowski, about 60% of the GOP primary vote came from downstate — and Darren Bailey dominated the region. The downstate farmer secured 54% compared to Dabrowski’s 29%, DuPage County Sheriff James Mendrick’s 10% and businessman Rick Heidner’s 8%.

There’s no path back to statewide relevancy for Illinois Republicans that doesn’t involve winning the suburban collar counties and cutting down losing margins in Chicago and suburban Cook County.
On Wednesday, Bailey posted on X a picture from a car driving on the Eisenhower Expressway with the Sears Tower on the horizon. The caption: “Less talking. More listening.” He knows the task ahead. But that doesn’t make it any less daunting.
6. INSANE MONEY: Between direct campaign contributions and outside PACs, there was an unprecedented level of spending on federal races. More than $55 million was spent in the Senate race and $62 million in four contested Democratic primaries for Chicago-area House seats.
It was a mixed bag for various dark money interests. Two of the four congressional candidates backed by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee — Donna Miller in the 2nd and Melissa Bean in the 8th — won their primaries while state Rep. Laura Fine lost in the 9th and Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin came up short in the 7th. AIPAC spent $22 million collectively in Chicago area races.
And two PACs backed by the cryptocurrency industry unsuccessfully spent more than $10 million in the Senate race against Stratton.
7. INCUMBENTS LOSE: Most incumbent lawmakers win reelection, but there are always exceptions. Tuesday night, there were two.
In Chicago, state Rep. Jaime Andrade lost to progressive challenger Miguel Alvelo-Rivera 56% to 44%. Andrade, first appointed in 2013, is one of the last vestiges of former Chicago Ald. Dick Mell’s Northwest Side political machine.
Alvelo-Rivera had the backing of the Chicago Teachers Union and several progressive groups. The district has increasingly become a hotbed for democratic socialism in the city.
In western Illinois, Deputy Minority Leader Norine Hammond, R-Macomb, lost to Freedom Caucus-backed Josh Higgins 58% to 32%. House Republicans spent hundreds of thousands of dollars defending Hammond.
House Minority Leader Tony McCombie, R-Savanna, fended off a primary challenge as did a handful of other Republicans. But, the primaries served as a distraction and diversion of resources that could have been saved for a general election. As we all know, they need all the help they can get in a state dominated by Democrats.
8. CROKE WINS: Most thought state Rep. Margaret Croke would win the primary for comptroller given her strong establishment backing, but scant public polling lent the outcome some unpredictability.
While the race hasn’t been called yet, Croke appears to be in the driver’s seat, leading state Sen. Karina Villa by just under 27,000 votes, or 34.6% to 32.2% in a four-person race.
Most of that margin is from Cook County, where Croke had the party’s endorsement. It appears to have paid dividends by holding off Villa, who had support in the Latino community and among progressive voters along Chicago’s lakefront.
Brenden Moore is a politics and government reporter for Capitol News Illinois, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news service that distributes state government coverage to hundreds of news outlets statewide. Moore in Springfield is his regular analysis column.
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March 18, 2026 at 06:42PM
