EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Capitol News Insider checked in with more than a dozen Illinois political operatives and observers ahead of Tuesday’s primary election. Democratic insiders tell us they expect tight races in the party’s primaries for U.S. Senate and several Chicago-area congressional districts. Republicans, on the other hand, expect Darren Bailey to easily win the party’s nomination for governor.

WHY IT MATTERS: The candidates Democratic voters decide to nominate for Senate and five open, safe-blue congressional districts could shape the state’s representation in Washington for a generation.

And for Republicans, it’s a gut-check moment to see if the GOP base doubles down on Bailey, the party’s 2022 nominee, or goes with someone who might have more appeal to general election voters in the Chicago suburbs.

MONEY TALKS: One thing everyone agrees on: the dark money that’s poured into these races is overwhelming. Illinois airwaves have just been bombarded with ads from political action committees mostly representing the cryptocurrency industry and supporting Israel.

According to AdImpact, PACs have spent more than $35 million on Illinois U.S. House primaries and more than $20 million in the U.S. Senate primary this cycle.

ONE DEM INSIDER: “I think the story of this election is going to be whether AIPAC money and crypto money can be weaponized by the right to elect candidates in Democratic primaries that are closer to MAGA than to actual Democrats.”

SENATE: Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi spent most of the campaign as the polling and fundraising frontrunner, but Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton has closed the gap in recent weeks. Illinois Future PAC, largely funded by Gov. JB Pritzker, spent more than $10 million on ads boosting her candidacy.

As Stratton’s moved up, two PACs with ties to the crypto industry have spent millions attacking her and promoting Rep. Robin Kelly, who’s polling in a distant third. The political arm of Indian American Impact, which has endorsed Krishnamoorthi, has done the same.

“You have ads from these crypto guys that are on Black radio,” the Democratic insider said. “You have just like a bunch of people who have no interest in actually electing a Black candidate communicating at a very high clip specifically to split that vote. So it’s very clear to me that Team Raja has decided that that is their path to victory.”

Everyone who spoke to Capitol News Insider said the race is tight and could go either way. Though most said they expect Krishnamoorthi to eke out a victory over Stratton.

Kelly’s vote share is likely to be a major factor since she and Stratton have an overlapping political base on Chicago’s South Side. Though at least one Democratic operative said Kelly shouldn’t be counted out, suggesting she could appeal to voters sick of the mudslinging between Krishnamoorthi and Stratton.

On the Republican side, former party chair Don Tracy is considered the favorite in a six-way contest featuring candidates with almost no statewide name recognition. GOP operatives said not to count out Chicago attorney Jeannie Evans, however.

CONGRESS: Most Democratic political operatives view Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss as likely to emerge as the victor in the contentious 16-way Democratic primary in the 9^th Congressional District, citing his residual name recognition from his unsuccessful run for governor in 2018, his service in the Statehouse and his deep roots in the community.

But they also said not to sleep on social media influencer Kat Abughazaleh, especially if there’s increased turnout among younger voters.

Insiders were less confident in state Sen. Laura Fine’s chances, citing the attention she’s received over sharing numerous donors with AIPAC and the millions spent by Elect Chicago Women, a dark money group with AIPAC ties, to boost her candidacy.

But AIPAC won’t get shut out in Illinois, insiders predict. Most said they expect former Congresswoman Melissa Bean to win in the northwest suburban-based 8^th Congressional District. Progressive Junaid Ahmed, who’s been endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, is viewed as Bean’s top competition.

In the 2^nd Congressional District, based on Chicago’s South Side and in the south suburbs, most expect former Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. to win back his old seat.

“Jesse is going to be tough to beat,” predicted another Democratic political operative, citing his name recognition and voter sympathy over the recent death of his father, the Rev. Jesse Jackson.

Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller is viewed as second-most likely. Like Bean and Fine, Miller has been the beneficiary of millions in ad spending by AIPAC-associated Elect Chicago Women.

Insiders were the least certain of the outcome in the 7^th Congressional District, held by retiring Rep. Danny Davis, with one labeling it “an absolute mess.”

The two names most frequently mentioned: Davis-endorsed State Rep. LaShawn Ford, D-Chicago, and Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin, who’s also benefited from millions in PAC spending.

COMPTROLLER: There’s been almost no public polling in this four-way Democratic primary, though most operatives expect state Rep. Margaret Croke, D-Chicago, with a fundraising advantage and coveted endorsements from Pritzker and the Cook County Democratic Party, to win. Though many said Lake County Treasurer Holly Kim has run a strong race and could surprise some people.

GOVERNOR: Four years ago, Darren Bailey won a six-way GOP primary with 57% of the vote. Most Republican operatives and observers who spoke to CNI said they don’t expect a different outcome in 2026. They cited Bailey’s strong name recognition and the three other GOP candidates not raising the resources needed to become better known statewide.

“I just can’t imagine that Darren, with all his goodwill within the 550,000 Republicans that are going to vote, wouldn’t come out with a majority in that race,” said former state party chair Pat Brady.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR: There are several things to keep tabs on as they’re counting votes Tuesday. Among them: whether dark money moved the needle, how Pritzker fares in the two races he’s endorsed in and the level of support of Robin Kelly in the Senate race.