One week out from the 9th Congressional District primary, a second poll commissioned by the Evanston RoundTable shows content creator Kat Abughazaleh gaining on frontrunner Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss while state Sen. Laura Fine (9th District) sinks behind both, with about one in six voters still undecided ahead of Election Day on March 17.

The RoundTable’s second poll through Public Policy Polling, a professional polling firm affiliated with the Democratic Party, surveyed 741 likely Democratic primary voters on March 9 and 10, asking who they plan to vote for in the congressional primary along with other related questions. The poll reached voters through text-to-web messages and automated landline calls, and responses were weighted to more accurately reflect the 9th District’s demographics.

Biss was the first pick for 24% of respondents, the same share as the last poll, while Abughazaleh went up three points to 20%. Fine dropped two points to 14%, separating her from the top two, and state Sen. Mike Simmons (7th District) gained four points to 10%, making him the first candidate besides the top three to reach double digits in any poll released throughout the campaign.

Former FBI agent Phil Andrew and Skokie school board member Bushra Amiwala both gained two points, reaching 7% and 6% respectively, and state Rep. Hoan Huynh (13th District), economist Jeff Cohen and environmental engineer Justin Ford logged 1% each. About one in six voters, or 17%, say they still aren’t sure who they would vote for, five points fewer than the last poll but still more than enough to impact the outcome.

The poll’s demographic data show some splits being similar to the previous poll, like Biss performing the best with voters 45-65 years old at 23% and those 65 years and older at 31%, while Abughazaleh has a wide lead with voters 18-45 years old at 34%. Gender showed a similar split too: Biss did best with female voters at 28%, and Abughazaleh did best with male voters at 29%.

Other splits like geography shifted between the two: in the previous poll, Biss held leads among voters in the 7th, 8th and 9th State Senate districts, which make up the 9th Congressional District’s southeast in Chicago and inner-ring suburbs. But in the new poll, Abughazaleh has narrowly taken the lead in the 7th District covering Chicago’s far north side, with 24% compared to 21% for Biss and 19% for current Sen. Simmons, and in the 8th District covering Morton Grove, Niles, part of Skokie and other suburbs, with 22% versus 21% for Biss.

However, Biss expanded his lead in the 9th Senate District he previously represented in Springfield, which covers Evanston, Wilmette Glenview and other northern suburbs: Biss took 31% here, substantially more than the 17% for current Sen. Fine’s 17% and Abughazaleh’s 13%.

Changes in favorability, second picks

Turning to favorability, each of the top six candidates logged higher name recognition than in the last poll, and the top three fell in their net scores, albeit some worse than others.

Biss retains a strong net favorability at +19%, but this is still a nine-point drop from a couple weeks ago driven by a rise in negative reactions against flat positives; Abughazaleh’s negatives grew more than her positives, bringing her down three points to +5%. But these are modest compared to Fine’s 23 point decline, taking her from +1 to -22 with a full half of voters holding an unfavorable opinion of her.

The other candidates fared much better, as Simmons, Amiwala and Andrew each raised their name recognition to 60% or better and increased their overall favorabilities. Simmons in particular gained nine points to reach +29, one point better than Biss’ net in the previous poll.

There were also shifts in who some candidates’ supporters said their second choice would be, suggesting changes in attitude over the last couple weeks of the campaign.

For example, while Biss remains Fine voters’ top answer for second choice, Biss voters had a small shift away from Fine and toward Abughazaleh, whose supporters remain evenly split between Biss, Amiwala and Simmons for their number two candidate. Simmons’ voters saw the biggest change between the two polls, shifting away from Abughazaleh and Fine as their second picks and toward Biss and Amiwala, with about twice as many either lacking or unsure of their second favorite.

Campaigns’ reactions

Asked for comment on a summary of the results, most of the leading campaigns gave confident spins on how the poll signified their strength entering the campaign’s final week.

Biss campaign manager George Lundgren asserted that the results show “AIPAC’s smear campaign has failed,” referring to the millions of dollars spent by super PACs reportedly funded by the American Israel Political Action Committee on ads supporting Fine and attacking Biss.

“The more voters learn about Laura Fine, the less they like her,” wrote Lundgren in an emailed statement. “Daniel continues to be the clear frontrunner in this race, with by far the highest favorability of the leading candidates along with the resources and organization to win on March 17.”

Meanwhile, a Fine campaign spokesperson simply wrote that “We are confident in our own polling and the campaign is going to sprint through the tape.”

For Abughazaleh, campaign spokesperson Ramiro Sarmiento declared the primary “is now a two-way race” between her and Biss. “The momentum is ours,” Sarmiento wrote. “We have been running an unapologetically progressive campaign from the beginning, and it’s paying off.”

And Simmons’ campaign manager Milan Patel wrote that he is “in prime position” to earn support from the significant number of undecided voters over the next week.

“Despite the millions of outside money pouring in, this race will come down to the wire and down to the voters,” Patel wrote. “He [Simmons] has the highest favorability among the top candidates, by a double digit margin, because his message is a winning one.”

Local early voting is open at the Robert Crown Community Center and other sites around Cook County. More coverage and election resources can be found on the RoundTable’s election page.