With this column’s primary focus on government analysis, it’s been sensible to stay out of the political predictions game, a philosophy that also provides solid cover for a shoddy track record.
When the urge strikes, it’s easier to frame the forecast as a query, a rhetorical strategy that suits the medium while also preserving the ability to take a victory lap should the opportunity arise.
Case in point: A December 2024 column headlined: “Will Tier 2 pension changes be defining political fight of 2025?”
A return to the subject six months hence put the issue firmly in “reply hazy, try again” territory, but here we are in February 2026, and Gov. JB Pritzker has signaled he’d really like the General Assembly to get serious about pension reforms.
Pritzker on Monday issued a release invoking his February 2024 budget proposal (the 2026 edition is on tap for Feb. 18) with three key proposals: another extension for the pension buyout program, using money left after paying income tax refunds for pensions instead of general fund expenses and “increasing the statutory funded ratio goal to 100% funded by 2048 and addressing the Tier II safe harbor concerns by adjusting pensionable earnings cap, building on $75 million set aside in the most recent budget.”
A Capitol News Illinois summary (tinyurl.com/2024PensionPlan) noted lawmakers have already conducted several hearings on the 2-year-old plan, along with considering outside proposals, such as those from organized labor.
A union coalition backing Tier 2 reforms has long argued Pritzker’s proposals don’t go far enough to deal with their concerns about how the reduced benefits for employees hired since Jan. 1, 2011, negatively impact recruitment and retention. Those workers must stay on the job until age 67 to retire with full benefits; for Tier 1 employees, the youngest age is 55. Tier 2 also promises a smaller pension benefit based on cost-of-living formulas and new formulas.
It would be grossly inaccurate to brand Pritzker anti-union, especially in the context of his immediate predecessor, whose busting goals were a defining characteristic. But in this instance, he’s so far tried to claim the mantle of putting taxpayers first while adhering to a “responsible path and continuing to make steady progress toward full pension funding to ensure long-term stability.”
Others can speculate whether this is political altruism, a campaign-year concern or something else altogether, and it’s easy to get derailed focusing on all the missteps, intentional and otherwise, to deliver the current moment, where the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability estimates our pension systems are collectively funded at 47.8%.
But that number was 43.8% in 2021. Progress bests stasis or backslides. Further action is always needed. Will this be the year?
• Scott T. Holland writes about state government issues for Shaw Local News Network. He can be reached at sholland@shawmedia.com.
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February 7, 2026 at 10:04AM
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