The sobering warning issued this morning from the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget comes less than two weeks before Pritzker introduces his budget for the upcoming fiscal year in Springfield.

The Democratic governor is one of the most vocal critics of President Donald Trump’s policies, which have included both broad tax cuts and reductions in federal spending for food and child care assistance for low-income families in particular states, including Illinois.

Pritzker’s budget office estimates that federal income-tax cuts pushed by the Trump White House now will reduce state revenue in the current fiscal year that ends June 30 by $587 million, rather than $830 million forecast last fall. Spending reductions of about 4% already in place, and unexpected increases in other revenue sources, should keep the current budget balanced.

The revenue shortfall for the upcoming fiscal year that begins July 1 will be reduced by about $250 million from the current year in large part because some impacts of the federal tax cuts have been blunted.

The budget office expects $339 million less in income tax revenue in the coming fiscal year than otherwise would have been the case before the federal tax-law changes.

But reductions in federal outlays for welfare, known as Temporary Assistance to Needy Families, and child care support programs create a potential $1.4 billion hole for Illinois legislators to address. The threatened cuts are currently on hold because of a court order.

Pritzker has been warning legislators and the public for months of difficult choices that lie ahead as the state grapples with reduced tax revenue and federal financial support coupled with increased costs to provide safety-net services. If the reductions in federal funding hold up, legislators potentially will have to seek more revenue or cut services.