PEORIA (25News Now) – The 2026 Illinois U.S. Senate Race is shaping up now as a highly competitive primary, according to Illinois Wesleyan University Political Science Professor and former Bloomington Mayor Tari Renner.

He tells 25News Central Illinois may hold the deciding vote.

U.S. Sen Dick Durbin (D-IL) is retiring after more than three decades in office, opening the door to a crowded field.

Following his announcement, 22 Democrats and Republicans entered the race.

As the March 17 primary approaches, three Democratic contenders have emerged as frontrunners.

U.S. House members Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly are on the ballot along with Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton.

Gov. JB Pritzker is endorsing Stratton, his former running mate. That could give her an advantage, helping attract labor support and political donations across the state, said Renner.

Despite close polling among the top three, Renner said Central Illinois could play a major role in the outcome.

“What I would point out to Central Illinois voters is we may very well be the region that swings this election because any of these three candidates could win and as we’ve seen, with Sen. Durbin, although he’s unusual, we may have somebody around for 30 years in this seat,” said Renner.

He said candidates’ fundraising strategies differ, with Krishnamoorthi spending more of his own money to build name recognition, while Stratton and Kelly have held back before the primary.

“The issue that he’s been stressing is the opposition to Donald Trump that would appeal to his Democratic base are not things that Robin Kelly or Julia Stratton disagree with him on. He’s built a lot of soft name recognition, and Julia and Robin have a lot of room to grow,” Renner said.

Stratton and Kelly have also positioned themselves as opponents to Trump and Republicans.

Stratton’s campaign priorities include championing for middle class families by focusing on policies that will “make life more affordable, creating and expanding economic opportunities, and protecting rights and freedoms.”

Kelly has a slightly different list of priorities, highlighting a “people over profits” platform which prioritizes a progressive and economic policy platform such as “Medicare for all and capping childcare costs.” All of these similar to Krishnamoorthi’s plans.

In the 2020 General Election, Durbin won a fifth term by defeating Republican Mark Curran with almost 55% of the vote.

Durbin carried Peoria County with 51.28% of the vote, but he lost in Tazewell, McLean, and Fulton counties.

In Tazewell, Durbin won just 37.09% of the vote. He amassed 44.66% in McLean County, and 43.13% in Fulton County.

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