A renewed federal push to relax restrictions on marijuana likely will mean bigger profits for cannabis companies and more research into the effects of the plant, industry participants say. It may eventually ease high prices slightly, but otherwise isn’t expected to make an immediate difference for consumers in Illinois.

That’s because weed already is legal under Illinois state law. The new proposed federal classification would allow doctors to prescribe FDA-approved cannabis products, rather than just recommending it, and research eventually could result in better understanding of the plant’s effects and proper use.

President Donald Trump’s executive order Dec. 18 did not legalize cannabis, but directed the attorney general to change its classification as a controlled substance from the most serious designation of Schedule I, on par with heroin and LSD, to Schedule III, the same class as codeine, ketamine and steroids.

The change was put in motion when President Joe Biden’s administration proposed rescheduling in 2022, but the process was bogged down before the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration. It’s uncertain how much longer the lengthy process will take.

The main immediate effect would be that cannabis businesses for the first time will be able to take normal business tax deductions for expenses. That could cut in half tax rates that now reach 70% to 80%, said cannabis attorney Scott Redman, president of the Illinois Independent Craft Growers Association.

“The tax part is huge,” Redman said. “Just imagine your own tax returns if you had no deductions. It makes the business more viable. That can only help businesses get investments. So it’s going to be a big deal for those operating and those still trying to get up and running.”

The Cannabis Business Association of Illinois, which represents most of the licensed industry in the state, previously issued its position on reclassification, stating, “This is an important step in the right direction for the cannabis industry and our society at large, and we hope this continues to pave the path toward federal legalization.”

Recreational use of cannabis remains illegal under federal law, which still largely prevents federally licensed banks from giving loans to pot businesses. Twenty-three states have ignored the federal prohibition and legalized recreational use, while 42 states have authorized some form of medical cannabis.

Trump said he had people “begging” him to reclassify pot to make it more available for pain relief and other uses.

While Congress recently acted to ban intoxicating hemp products effective in late 2026, the presidential order directs staff to work with lawmakers to allow access to full-spectrum CBD, a nonintoxicating part of the cannabis plant, with potential reimbursements for patients on Medicare. The order also calls for setting limits on the amount of THC, the component that gets users high, allowed per serving.

Based on clinical trials, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has approved the use of synthetic THC to relieve nausea from chemotherapy and AIDS, and for CBD to treat severe forms of epilepsy.

Weaker evidence shows cannabis has some effectiveness in pain relief and for muscle stiffness and spasms for multiple sclerosis.

Many people use cannabis to treat insomnia, anxiety and stress, but the American Psychiatric Association generally has opposed its medical use, and the American Medical Association opposes legalization due to concerns about cannabis use disorder, with both calling for more research.

The rescheduling would not, according to the Cannabis Regulators Association, let doctors prescribe cannabis products not approved by the FDA; would not legalize interstate commerce of cannabis; would not allow real-world cannabis products in human clinical trials unless approved by the FDA; would not change federal employee drug testing requirements; nor change criminal penalties for trafficking.

Left unknown are what federal rule changes may follow, and how litigation might affect the process.

As for sales, Illinois has seen recent significant drops in retail recreational, medical and out-of-state sales revenue. Cannabis sales declined more than $29 million in October year-over-year, for a drop of 20%.

Nationwide, industry analyst Whitney Economics predicts the first year-to-year decline in licensed cannabis sales revenue in 2025, down from $30 billion to near $29 billion, primarily because of lower prices due to oversupply.