* From COGFA’s October state revenue report…

Year to Date

Through the first four months of FY 2026, revenues deposited into the State’s General Funds have increased by $474 million, representing a solid 2.9% gain compared to the same period in FY 2025.

Despite this month’s declines in Personal Income Tax receipts, the gross totals are still $177 million or 1.9% higher than FY 2025’s year-to-date totals. On a net basis, receipts are up $149 million. For the Corporate Income Tax, October’s $42 million increase helps alleviate a portion of the first quarter declines. Still, the gross totals remain $228 million (-14.1%) behind last year’s pace, with net receipts down $181 million.

Sales Tax revenues continue to be a bright spot this fiscal year, with a cumulative gain in gross receipts of $196 million (+5.1%). After accounting for statutory distributions to the Road Fund and other certain transportation-related funds, the net increase stands at $51 million (+1.4%)

The modest gains in October lifted the “All Other State Sources” cumulative gain to $25 million. Notable growth in revenues from the Estate Tax (+$42 million) and Insurance Taxes (+$26 million) helped offset declines from Other Sources (-$23 million), Cigarette Taxes (-$7 million), Public Utility Taxes (-$5 million), Corporate Franchise Taxes (-$5 million), and Liquor Taxes (-$3 million).

The Transfers-In category remains the strongest area of revenue growth for the General Funds, with receipts through October up $303 million (+36.2%). Much of this growth stems from the Income Tax Refund Fund Transfer, which is up $201 million year-to-date. Other notable contributors include the Sports Wagering Transfer (+$68 million), Gaming Transfers (+$31 million), and Lottery Transfers (+$7 million). These increases have more than offset minor declines in Other Transfers (-$3 million) and Cannabis Transfers (-$1 million).

Federal Sources also continue to perform well, rising $126 million (+9.7%) through the first third of FY 2026, supported by slight gains in October.

* October’s personal income tax receipts explained…

After posting above-average growth of 10.3% in September, Personal Income Tax receipts declined $81 million (-3.6%) in October, likely due to timing differences in payment patterns. In contrast, Corporate Income Tax receipts partially rebounded from last month’s $196 million drop, increasing by $42 million (+22.1%) in October. On a net basis—after accounting for distributions to the Income Tax Refund Fund and the Local Government Distributive Fund—Personal Income Tax receipts were down $69 million, while Corporate Income Tax receipts rose $34 millio

* Meanwhile, in Chicago…

Chicago had its credit outlook lowered one notch to negative by S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday after Mayor Brandon Johnson proposed a partial supplemental pension contribution next year as the city grapples with back-to-back deficits and weaker reserves.

“The revision was prompted by the city’s ongoing, heavy reliance on one-time measures in the fiscal 2026 budget proposal, its significantly diminished balance sheet following consecutive years of large budget deficits, and the proposed reduction in the city’s advance pension contribution to about half of what is required by the policy,” S&P analysts Scott Nees, Blake Yocom and Jane Ridley wrote. […]

“We are watching as the fiscal 2026 budget negotiations advance over the coming weeks to assess the credit significance of the final budget package, but, absent a significant change in the approach to achieving structural balance, we believe the probability of a downgrade could remain elevated into the fiscal 2027 budget cycle,” according to the report.

Among other things, the city and its school district have a bad habit of relying too heavily on one-time revenues to fund long-term spending. And this is not a recent habit. Remember Mayor Daley’s parking meter deal? A billion dollars put right into the city budget. Poof, it was gone.