By geography, Newman currently represents 43 percent of the new 6th compared to 24 percent from Casten’s current district, according to calculations by Daily Kos Elections. And Newman has a progressive profile that could resonate with more primary voters. But Newman is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for allegedly offering a job to a potential political opponent to keep him from running against her in 2020, when she ousted incumbent Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski in the primary. 

The Democratic nominee will start with the advantage in the general election, as Biden would have won the district by 11 points. That puts it within striking distance for Republicans, however, if they can recreate their performance from the 2021 gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey. Keith Pekau, the mayor of suburban Orland Park, is the top GOP fundraiser, though Burr Ridge Mayor Gary Grasso has some local endorsements. Initial rating: Likely Democratic.

13th District (Open; Rodney Davis, R)

Democrats redrew this district to be significantly more Democratic, pushing Davis to run in the 15th District. Considering Biden would have won the seat with 54 percent, the Democratic primary is critical because the nominee will start the general election with the advantage. 

The Democratic front-runner is Nikki Budzinski. The labor activist and former executive in the Office of Management and Budget had $730,000 in the bank on Dec. 31. On the Republican side, candidates include Jesse Reising, a former DOJ prosecutor and current partner at Kirkland & Ellis, philanthropist Regan Deering  and others. The 13th was designed to be a Democratic pickup, but Republicans could hold it under the right conditions. Initial rating: Lean Democratic.

Underwood won reelection by just more than 1 point in 2020 in a closer-than-expected race against Republican Jim Oberweis. This newly drawn district would have voted for Biden by 12 points, but Republicans believe they can win with the wind at their backs. They don’t have a breakaway challenger yet. No Republican had more than $100,000 in the bank at the end of the year, compared to the congresswoman’s $2 million. If there’s a stellar GOP recruit still waiting on the sidelines, they have until March 14 to jump in. This is a good district to watch for the size of a GOP wave because it’s a seat Democrats would win under normal circumstances. Initial rating: Lean Democratic.